By Mr. Governor Okojere
Nigeria’s disunited opposition landscape is turning into a busy construction site. Ahead of the 2027 presidential election, opposition parties are trying to build one big coalition. Their main goal is to unseat President Bola Tinubu. But will it be easy?
In politics, where egos tower and allegiance drifts like clouds, merging these groups into one formidable force is proving as tough as trying to draw water with a basket.
The political atmosphere is tense and heavy. It feels like the minutes before a tropical thunderstorm, where everyone knows thunder is coming, but no one knows where the first strike of lightning will land.
Big names like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rabiu Kwankwaso, Rotimi Amaechi, former Senate President David Mark, Rauf Aregbesola, and several others have first tried to unite under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
However, that alliance collapsed under the weight of personal ambitions. Obi and Kwankwaso subsequently defected to the National Democratic Coalition (NDC), where they now serve as the party’s presidential and vice-presidential candidates, respectively.
Meanwhile, mainstream news platforms and social media are awash with speculation about a “new mega-coalition.” This is happening even though several key opposition figures have already pitched their tents with different political parties, and a number of them have emerged as presidential flag-bearers of their respective parties.
This sudden shift raises critical questions: What made them change their minds now? What new plans do they have for Nigerians? Will they bring back the fuel subsidy and cancel President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms if given the mandate? Who among these top contenders will step down for the other? Which political party will they adopt? And if either Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi secures the coalition’s ticket on their promise of a single-term presidency, can four years be enough to turn Nigeria’s economic fortunes around?
In my opinion, that “single term” promise seems fraudulent. It sounds like “let me chop small, then I will leave” dressed up in big grammar.
Look at it from this perspective: a politician says he wants to serve his country, and the Constitution gives him eight years—two full terms. Yet, he claims: “No, I will only be president for four years.” Haba! Who does that? That’s not patriotism, nor is it sacrifice — it’s desperation! “No good doctor abandons surgery halfway just to prove he is humble.”
On reviving Nigeria’s comatose economy, a walk down memory lane is instructive. Both Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi declared during the 2023 presidential election campaign that they would end the fuel subsidy if elected. Their position aligned with that of the All Progressives Congress candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who described the subsidy regime as unsustainable and riddled with corruption.
At a Channels TV town hall in January 2023, Peter Obi went further by vowing to remove the fuel subsidy immediately upon assuming office, calling it “organized crime.”
But today — with their political fortunes seemingly going sour — both Atiku and Obi have adopted a new stance — a stance as hollow and insincere as an empty drum. It reeks of desperation and a lack of preparedness for the job they are seeking.
Atiku’s pledge to restore the fuel subsidy if elected is steeped in hypocrisy and deceit. Peter Obi, on the other hand, vacillates like a pendulum, swinging between “yes and no” one second, and “no” the next on whether or not he would reinstate it
Both men have once agreed that removing the subsidy was a bitter but necessary medicine to revive our ailing economy. But now, Atiku has made a surprising U-turn, playing politics with our pain by promising to restore the subsidy—a calculated attempt to hoodwink unsuspecting Nigerians just to win votes.
These political comedians are reading the room like weather forecasters, gauging the mood of Nigerians. This is window-dressing politics designed to serve only their interest, not those of Nigerians.
Curiously, murmurs are surfacing in political circles that some politicians are positioning former President Goodluck Jonathan as the only candidate capable of stopping President Bola Tinubu in 2027. However, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan has not said anything about it yet.
But let’s be honest about the motive. Those pushing this idea are not doing so out of patriotism, nor out of love for him. And certainly not because he did wonders in office. Their calculation is simpler and more transactional. They want him because he can only run for one term due to the constitutional tenure barrier.
But the thorny question remains: can Nigerians trust Dr. Goodluck Jonathan again?
His six-year tenure left deep scars. Boko Haram overran the North-East. The NEPA privatization brought bills, not power. ASUU strikes paralyzed universities for months. And the arms deal scandal exposed massive corruption.
Memory fades, but records don’t. Can he honestly be trusted back in power? “If the pot that cooked your breakfast leaks, you don’t use that same pot for dinner.”
Unfortunately, it is sad to note that many of these politicians care more about 2031 than about Nigerians today. They prioritize personal ambition over national interest. Their focus is strictly on the fastest route to power in 2031. That is why a one-term candidate looks sweet to them.
For them, removing President Bola Tinubu is no longer politics. It is now an “all-machinery” crusade — every gear, every bolt, every spare part must move.
Nothing must be wasted. Is fuel price up? Content. Is food price up? Content. Is rain falling? Also content. The opposition has treated every economic pain point as just another entry in their content calendar.
Yet, there is a glaring gap in their criticism. They have not told Nigerians what they will do differently to revive the economy if elected. “It is easy to point at a leaking roof, but harder to show the blueprint for a new house.”
President Bola Tinubu did not inherit a prosperous economy; he inherited one riddled with structural challenges. Money was wasted on the fuel subsidy, the exchange rate was broken, roads and power infrastructure were poor, and national debt was very high.
The opposition must answer one key question: Considering the ruined economy this administration inherited, was there truly any painless path to reform, especially given the saying “no pain, no gain”?
However, if the proposed mega-coalition is built solely on a shared hatred of President Bola Tinubu, rather than a clear plan to fix the country, it will likely fall apart under pressure.
More so, if the opposition relies on 2023 election arithmetic—believing a single candidate is a silver bullet to defeat President Bola Tinubu—it is a mistake to assume those same voting patterns will repeat in 2027.
Since 2023, the opposition landscape has been badly fractured. Many prominent figures have defected, with the majority joining the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
There is also the risk of a trust deficit within the coalition. Hand the ticket to Peter Obi, and a large number of Atiku’s northern base may walk away. Hand it to Atiku, and Obi’s supporters—who are predominantly from the Southeast—will cry foul: “Two rams cannot drink from the same calabash without butting heads.”
Finally, the viability of this mega-coalition rests not on political theater, but on the delivery of a pragmatic framework designed to improve the socio-economic reality of Nigerians, coupled with electoral validation. Its capacity to survive internal schisms and dislodge the incumbent administration of President Bola Tinubu remains a question only time can answer.
