Basil Okoh
In February 2023, with the support of the masses across Nigeria and without the assistance of the men of power, Peter Obi won the presidential election, but he was denied access to the presidency as he did not have the backing of these men of power to push him across the entrenched oligarchy of INEC and particularly the judiciary to the finish line of the oath to the presidency. So a false result was declared for Bola Tinubu and he was sworn in to be the president of Nigeria.
For 2027, Peter Obi has teamed up with the men of power to confront Tinubu who has now run the country aground. But there is now a huge boulder crossing the road to a direct electoral confrontation between Peter Obi and Bola Ahmed Tinubu. That boulder is in the name of Atiku Abubakar who knitted together the ADC, the very platform on which Peter Obi desires to run against Bola Tinubu for the presidency.
The trouble now is that Atiku Abubakar himself wants also to run for the presidency for the sixth time, using the same ADC platform. So ADC will be forced into a contested primary election to choose between Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar and a few others to choose who will carry the party flag into the election for the next president of Nigeria.
The story gets a little complex from here.
Peter Obi has the national popularity to win the presidential election against Tinubu again but he has no control or compelling influence over the organizational structure of ADC. Besides, his principles forbid him from offering bribes to win the Primaries to gain the candidacy of ADC. He has stated since a long time ago, a commitment never to offer bribes to win elections. This played out well for him the last time because he had no challenger in the Labour Party, the party on which platform he ran in 2023.
Atiku Abubakar is of the old guard, much older, a powerful member of the establishment and has run to be president five times previously. Atiku has a tragic flaw. He is already weather-beaten and being a systems person who has lasted decades in the establishment, he has lost a lot of popular support. He owns the building in which ADC is headquartered in Wuse II, controls the party machinery and is believed to still have deep pockets.
In any match up for a presidential primary election, it is widely believed that Atiku will trounce Obi, primarily because Obi will not offer bribes to anyone to vote for him. Atiku will not stand on such moral high grounds and will carry the day as a result of his deep pockets and his unabashed propensity to offer cash inducements to primary electors. Peter Obi standing on such moral high ground will not help his cause within the Nigerian political environment.
However, and this is where the conundrum really gets deep, Atiku, no matter how hard he and ADC tries, cannot mobilize the voting population to beat Tinubu in the general election. So he will win a contested primary in the ADC easily but will lose woefully in the general election. And that will defeat the entire purpose of the coalition. Morever, there is a general perception that the presidency should remain in Southern Nigeria for the next tenure and Atiku is seen as a usurper of the normative political order.
On the other hand, Peter Obi from his moral high ground will easily lose a contested primary in ADC, but if by consensus he is chosen to lead the ADC into the election as Presidential candidate, he will beat Tinubu by a very wide margin. The critical support to be offered him by the men of power in ADC will force the government to cede power to him and the ADC.
The youth population across the country identifies with Peter Obi as the leader to head the moral and economic rebirth of the country. His popularity across the country is so massive that he can easily start a war if he is cheated again of his victory. There is no greater fear of Peter Obi than exists today in the ruling party, APC.
There is therefore a moral obligation on Atiku Abubakar to submit to the superior interest and make a tactical move to accept the sacrifice of self for the overall good of ADC and the progress of the entire country. Atiku has to cede ground and yield the candidacy of ADC to Peter Obi for the overall pursuit of his party and the country’s goal. So there is a resounding call on Atiku to yield to the call for the pursuit of the public good.
If he refuses and takes the ticket of ADC and fails to win the presidency, Nigerians and particularly the youth population will not forgive him. History indeed will be very harsh on him for failure to answer the call that demanded his sacrifice to save Nigeria from a rapacious presidency.
@basilokoh.
