Why Mallam El-Rufai Will Fail Again

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Agboje Chuks

It is an established fact that Mallam Nasir El-Rufai fought vigorously for the presidency to shift to the South in 2023.

In doing so, he successfully challenged the “Aso Rock Cabal” allegedly linked to Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, positioning himself as one of the loudest voices insisting on a Southern presidency.

He became a primary advocate for Bola Ahmed Tinubu, even traveling to Chatham House in the UK, where he was famously spotted dancing “Buga” with the then-candidate, a moment Tinubu described as a demonstration of teamwork.

During that session, El-Rufai’s answers were precise and eloquent; he appeared to be a true believer in the Tinubu ideology.

This raises a troubling question: What changed? Why is he now speaking ill of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, even escalating to accusations that the administration is “worse than all previous military dictatorships”?

After years of convincing Nigerians of Tinubu’s capabilities, at what point did El-Rufai discover the President was no longer “good” for the country?

Did he possess this information all along and keep it hidden, or is his current stance merely a reaction to personal political setbacks?

There are two ways to view El-Rufai’s current dissent:

The Deception Narrative: If El-Rufai’s criticisms were accurate, it implies he knowingly sold a “wrong candidate” to Nigerians.

He has since clarified that his support was “strictly political and not based on personal friendship,” citing philosophical differences that would have made collaboration impossible anyway.

In this case, he owes the nation a massive apology for his role in that deception.

The Spite Narrative: Conversely, many believe El-Rufai is simply reacting to his failed ministerial confirmation in 2023, when he was not cleared by the Nigerian Senate due to perceived security concerns.

His rhetoric has only intensified since, including recent admissions on live TV of hacking the communications of National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu to uncover an alleged secret arrest order.

This has sparked controversy, leading to cybercrime charges against him and questioning by the anti-corruption agency over the alleged misuse of nearly $320 million (about ₦423 billion) in Kaduna state funds during his governorship.

If his shift in loyalty stems from losing out on a cabinet position, or now, facing legal scrutiny amid his defection to the ADC and hints at challenging Tinubu in the 2027 election then Nigerians must be wary of his motives.

It appears President Tinubu acted in the interest of national security by respecting the Senate’s findings back then, and recent events suggest the administration is now addressing these allegations through proper channels, including judicial review as called for by some observers.

If El-Rufai’s “enlightenment” is actually just a disguise for a personal vendetta, evident in his pattern of pivoting from insider to critic after disappointments, he is once again failing the Nigerian people.

His actions, including phone-tapping admissions, have provided grounds for legal action, potentially derailing his political ambitions further.

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